The fourth quarter is traditionally the strongest period of the year for e-commerce. Black Friday, Christmas, sales, and high expectations usually create ideal conditions for growth. However, the year 2025 indicated that even a "strong quarter" may no longer automatically mean performance growth.
Based on data analysis from nearly 300 GA4 accounts, we see how online sales developed in 4Q 2025 compared to 4Q 2024 – both at the market level and in more detail by individual segments.
The data suggests that market behavior in the last months of the year was neither chaotic nor random. Instead, it seems that customers reacted in a way that corresponds to their behavior in 2025. They considered their decisions more often, compared offers more, and according to available data, probably shopped less impulsively than in previous years. E-shops that did not account for this shift may have felt more significant impacts.
Overall Market Picture: Attention Remained, but Willingness to Spend Likely Weakened
Looking at aggregated data for the entire market sample, a seemingly paradoxical situation emerges. Traffic increased slightly year-on-year (+1.1% YoY), but there was also a significant decline in revenue (−14.77% YoY) and number of purchases (−12.77% YoY).
These numbers suggest that the problem was probably not the demand for information, but the purchase decision itself. Customers visited e-shops, but according to the data, they behaved more cautiously than in previous years. They often just mapped the offer, waited for a more suitable moment, or checked whether the purchase was really necessary for them at that time.
In other words, available data suggests that for eCommerce in 4Q 2025, the main problem was not traffic, but rather conversion and the overall value of orders.
Development by Segments: The Market Behaved Very Unevenly
The fourth quarter of 2025 showed that the eCommerce market did not develop uniformly. While some categories managed to grow even in an environment of increased consumer caution, other segments probably hit the limits of a model based on impulse and volume.
The differences between segments, according to the data, did not only stem from the type of products but mainly from the role that a particular purchase plays in the customer's daily life.
Winner of 4Q 2025: Groceries & Food
The food and fast-moving consumer goods segment was clearly the strongest in 4Q 2025 according to the data. Traffic increased by 84% year-on-year and revenue by 80%. This alignment between interest growth and performance suggests that it is a category with a clearly defined value for the customer.
The data suggests that customers in this segment probably address practicality rather than emotion – saving time, convenience, and availability. Online grocery shopping has become a regular part of consumer behavior, and e-shops that had mastered logistics, data, and UX significantly benefited from this trend.
Home & Kitchen: Fewer Visits, but Higher Decision Value
Despite a 15% drop in traffic, the Home & Kitchen segment grew by 5% in revenue year-on-year. Customers did not come en masse, but purposefully.
This is a category where, according to the data, trust, offer clarity, and the e-shop's ability to guide the customer to the right product play an important role. In an environment where purchasing decisions are made more rationally, quality UX or content can to some extent compensate for lower traffic volume.
Travel: High Customer Interest, but Decision-Making is Cautious
The travel segment recorded a significant increase in traffic (+55% YoY) in 4Q 2025, but revenue decreased by 8% year-on-year. The data suggests that customers actively engaged with the offer, planned, and compared options, but often postponed the purchase decision.
A longer decision-making phase suggests that in this segment, the advantage goes to those who can remain relevant throughout the entire shopping journey, not just at the first contact with the customer.
Fashion & Electronics: Traffic Slightly Increases, Conversions Lag Behind
In both cases, the same pattern emerges: Traffic increased slightly, but revenue decreased year-on-year. The data suggests that customers looked and compared more often, but spent less. This could often be due to higher price sensitivity, postponing larger purchases, or shifting to cheaper alternatives.
Pet Supplies, Toys, Health & Beauty: Biggest Decline
The most significant declines were recorded in segments that historically benefited from impulsive customer behavior. However, the data does not suggest a loss of interest, but rather that in 4Q 2025, customers probably distinguished more significantly between essential and "nice-to-have" purchases. In an environment of more cautious spending, these categories often took a back seat.
What Do These Data Suggest About Customer Behavior?
- Customers appear to be more cautious. They consider more, compare more, and shop less impulsively.
- Traffic is no longer a problem. The challenge is to convince people to convert.
- Segments with clear value are growing. Groceries, essentials, functional products.
- Segments based on emotion and impulse are weakening.
Data from nearly 300 GA4 accounts thus suggest that the market as a whole has not lost customer attention, but has probably lost part of their purchasing power. The difference between e-shops that managed to withstand this decline and those that felt it more significantly did not lie in the volume of traffic, but in the ability to work with data, optimize the shopping journey, and offer the customer clear value at the right moment.
According to these trends, the year 2026 will probably not be about who can bring in the most visits, but about who can understand them better. The advantage will go to those e-shops that can connect technology, UX, and marketing into one functional whole and respond to how customers actually shop.
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